Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Thursday September 15 2011

The US dollar (USD) was still seen trading bullish Wednesday after retail sales reports out of the United States disappointed many investors and drove trades towards safe haven assets. A sudden wave of risk aversion seems to have helped the greenback surge this week and data so far has only reinforced this momentum.

Additionally pessimistic data was released from several other economies as well. Switzerland inflation at the producer level appears to be in decline, industrial production across the euro zone and in Japan is stagnating, and the Australian housing market is contracting. The only optimistic piece of data out yesterday was the employment reports from Great Britain which saw, not necessarily job growth, but a not-as-bad-as-expected rate of unemployment growth.

With another unusually intense news day ahead, traders are anxiously awaiting the large string of reports out of the US which should clear up the picture somewhat in regards to inflation, manufacturing, and industrial production. The Current Account will also be published, though its impact is not expected to be as high as the manufacturing reports out of New York and Philadelphia. Traders should look towards another bullish day on the dollar should news continue to disappoint.

The direction of the Swiss franc (CHF) has been sharply pressured into one of distinct bearishness among investors as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision approaches. Against the US dollar (USD) the franc has actually been trending mildly flat despite the greenback’s bullish moves against its other currency rivals. But the Swissie has seen some setbacks brought about by poor regional fundamentals and a general atmosphere of risk flight, particularly following the SNB’s move to peg the CHF to the value of the EUR at 1.20.

A mood of deep pessimism is growing in regards to the investment in Europe at the moment. Market bears still seem to be gnawing on the EUR’s strength, sapping its value as its peripheral members struggle with bond auctions and other financial woes. Switzerland was formerly in a position to capitalize on the flight to safety, but saw its exporting capability deeply gouged by an unremitting currency appreciation. The SNB move to peg the currency has so far done its job by keeping the CHF’s rise in check.

Sentiment in Switzerland appears to have turned negative this week as well, with many analysts and economists expecting moves towards safety by traders following the SNB’s rate statements. An attitude of dovishness has gained traction and investors are worried that a continuation of low rates, coupled with the possibility of a rate reduction in Europe in 2012, could diminish currency values as we get deeper into the third quarter.

The Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to be weighed down this week as market reports continue to show contraction across the boards. Piling atop recent reports on Australia’s shrinking housing sector, recent publications of Australian consumer and business confidence is starting to show a broadening contraction striking several sectors of Australia’s economy, as well as its psyche.

Expectations for these recent reports have been for modest growth, and in some instance, at best, zero movement. The week’s reporting has so far led many investors to pull away from the Australian dollar (AUD) in recent trading. National data on housing and employment has also driven many investors away from the once-burgeoning AUD. This data, combined with dismal housing starts figures and building approvals reports, has so far dragged the Aussie lower and looks to continue doing so this week.

Crude Oil prices gained mild support Wednesday as sentiment appeared to favour an uptick brought about by a sharp reduction in US stockpiles. The weekly report revealed yesterday that the US has shed roughly 6.7 million barrels from its reserves. This news has so far countered the notion of a sinking price of oil brought about by higher USD values and pushed oil into a bullish posture from supply shortfall speculations.

An expected dip in oil values due to this week’s risk sensitive environment, which saw the greenback climbing sharply, has so far not affected the price of physical assets in any clearly visible way. The stockpile report out Wednesday surprised many investors who had priced in a far milder decline in reserves. With this sentiment grabbing hold among many traders, oil prices could see resurgence above $90 a barrel in the near future.

Jovi Overo

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Wednesday September 14 2011

The US dollar (USD) was seen trading mildly bullish Tuesday as investors weighed the impact bond auctions in Greece and Italy will have on the euro zone. A sudden wave of risk aversion last week seemed to have helped the greenback surge, and pessimism about sovereign debt in Europe is supporting this pressure. The EUR/USD seems to be floating closer to 1.33 as technical pressures also begin to mount.

Data on American economic optimism yesterday also signalled an uptick in outlook from the previous month, as reported by IBD/TIPP. The news has done little to the forex market, however, though it could ripple through longer-term analyses on US financial markets should further dips in industry be reported. Manufacturing has been forecast to slump moderately going into the third quarter as most indicators revealed decreased demand. How this will affect the greenback in the weeks ahead is so far undetermined.

As for today, there will be a heavy string of US economic releases, with most news focused on retail sales and the producer price index (PPI). Liquidity will likely be much higher in today’s afternoon trading as these reports get published. With consumer confidence, inflation, and retail sales in focus this week, the picture on future demand and growth levels is expected to become moderately clarified and this could weigh heavily on currency direction in the short- and mid-term.

The Great Britain pound (GBP) is expected to be seen trading with bullish results this week ahead of a slew of reports on the country’s manufacturing, housing, and service sectors. Against the US dollar (USD) the pound has actually been trending upwards despite the greenback’s bullish moves against its other currency rivals.

A mildly pessimistic sentiment towards investing in the euro at the moment has many investors on edge when considering regional investments. An embattled euro zone is sending financial ripples through its neighbours and some are concerned it could pull growth down across the entire continent. With yesterday’s inflationary data out of Britain, this doesn’t seem to be the case, at least for the island economy north of Western Europe. Housing data seemed a bit pessimistic, but consumer prices are indeed growing at a healthy rate in the UK.

Sentiment across the region may have turned negative, with many analysts and economists expecting moves towards safety by traders this week, but the GBP could see a solid weathering of this financial storm so long as data remains bullish. Great Britain appears positioned for a relatively better quarter than its southerly neighbours. The pound could see some bullish movement this week as a result of this overall sentiment.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) was seen trading mildly higher versus most other currencies this morning as its value responded to recent challenges with relatively more optimism than some had anticipated. Data in New Zealand has been mixed lately with some indications that inflation is not rising as strongly as in other economies, but perhaps in a good way. Food prices fell 1.3% this month, which could produce bearish pressure on the NZD, but should prove to be a boon for consumers in times of economic stress.

The latest movements of the Kiwi are causing some concerns, however, as many speculators are anticipating a bearish turn following recent surges in risk aversion. With interest rate decisions out later this evening, investors are waiting to see what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will do. A strengthening Kiwi has benefits for the buying power of the island economy, though its dependence on exports makes a strong NZD unfavourable for longer-term growth in New Zealand’s economy.

Crude Oil prices held steady Tuesday as sentiment appeared to favour a mild uptick in global stocks following reports of monetary moves being made by several central banks. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

An expected spike in dollar values due to this week’s risk sensitive environment has prevented many investors from taking positions on physical assets, creating a consolidation pattern on oil charts, but with the USD’s gains not materializing in large enough numbers early this week, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing later in the trading week.

Jovi Overo

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Tuesday September 13 2011

The US dollar (USD) was seen trading only mildly bullish early Tuesday morning as investors remained pessimistic about growth in Europe and Asia. A sudden wave of risk aversion seemed to have lifted the greenback following a move by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to peg the CHF to the value of the EUR at 1.20, and by central banks to stall any monetary moves.

Data on the American budget today may continue to indicate pessimism that could drive the greenback even higher. Recent news has done little to alter the current direction of the forex market, though news could hold values steady should they come in near forecasts. Inflation is forecast to hold steady in several nations this week, which could have the effect of lifting the value of riskier assets, though this will need further data to be confirmed.

As for today, there will be few US economic releases, with most news focused on British inflation. Liquidity will likely be higher in today’s early trading as these data points are published, though the impact of news on Great Britain alone may not be enough to force a surge in any direction on USD pairs and crosses. Inflation and consumer confidence are in focus this week and traders will want to pay attention to the latter in the case of mounting pessimism and its affect on dollar values.

The Great Britain pound (GBP) is expected to be seen trading with bullish results this week ahead of a slew of reports on the country’s inflation and housing sectors. Against the US dollar (USD) the pound has actually been trending upwards despite the greenback’s bullish moves against its other currency rivals.

Traders are looking for a way to balance a renewal of risk aversion with continued shakiness in global markets. A mildly pessimistic sentiment towards investing in global stocks at the moment has many investors on edge and looking for safety. An embattled euro zone, fending off market bears amid turmoil in its peripheral nations, also looks to be losing ground in financial markets as safe haven assets such as the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) take losses due to recent moves by their central banks.

Sentiment across the euro zone has turned negative, with many analysts and economists expecting moves towards safety by traders this week. Great Britain, however, appears positioned for a relatively better quarter than its southerly neighbours. With major inflationary reports expected all week and most expecting bullish figures, the GBP is in a position to either continue its recent streak, or take heavy losses should inflation be shown in a downturn.

The Japanese yen (JPY) was seen trading mildly lower versus most other currencies this morning as its value as an international safe haven was being challenged by an air of impending intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Being linked to international risk sentiment, the yen has experienced an expected uptick during a period when shifts away higher yielding assets became prominent. The JPY has been experiencing several long strides lately from the various shifts into riskier assets.

 

The latest moves of the yen are causing some concerns, however, as many speculators are anticipating another round of intervention by the BOJ. With industrial production data out this week, traders are waiting to see what the BOJ will do in the face of a downturn. A strengthening yen has benefits for the buying power of the island economy, though its dependence on exports makes a strong yen unfavourable for longer-term growth in Japan’s current financial model. As the island currency remains bullish, the pressure begins to mount for the expected bank move to lower its currency strength.

Crude Oil prices held steady Monday as sentiment appeared to favour a mild downtick in global stocks following policies of monetary stagnation being executed by several central banks last week. Data releases out of Europe and the US are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

An expected jump in dollar values due to this week’s risk sensitive environment has helped many investors ram up their short-taking positions on physical assets, but with the USD’s gains levelling off this morning, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady near $86 a barrel. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing by mid-week.

Jovi Overo

Beta Forex News, Jovi Overo Beta 2 Ltd, Monday September 5 2011

The disappointing data from the US economy continues to roll in. Friday’s NFP report showed the US failed to add new jobs in the month of August. Average hourly earnings fell to -0.1% from a gain of 0.5% which takes a bit of the bite out of last week’s strong personal spending data. The number of aggregate hours worked also declined.

In contrast to Europe the US economy is stalling but not contacting. This will likely bring policy responses from both the fiscal side as well as the monetary policy side. With pressure from Republicans, President Obama has moved his economic speech to September 7th where the ideas being kicked around range from extending US unemployment benefits, an extension of the payroll tax break, and a potential jobs program that may fall short of such previous ambitious programs of the Works Progress Administration from the mid-1930s.

A monetary policy response may come from the2-day Fed meeting in September. The potential exists for the Fed to increase the length of maturities of the debt it holds on its balance sheet or perhaps a pledge to target inflation at a particular rate, similar to the Fed’s commitment to hold interest rates until mid-2013. Additional bond buying seems unlikely at this time given the uptick in US inflationary pressures.

After a stellar Q1 where the German economy grew by 1.5%, Q2 stands in stark contrast with growth sputtering to 0.1%. Expectations are not rising with euro zone manufacturing PMIs falling below the 50 boom/bust level in August. The French economy has also stalled with zero growth in Q2. Additional pressures are being felt in both Italy and Spain with PMIs falling to new lows.

Europe has been engulfed in a debt crisis and in contrast to the US will not allow for a fiscal policy response. The opposite approach has been taken to implement additional austerity measures in Italy and Spain which may intensify the stagnant growth just as the global economy begins to slow. The options for the ECB remain limited in its upcoming policy meeting. Last week Trichet hinted at a slowing of inflationary pressures and a reduced inflation forecast will likely be formally made on Thursday. It is unlikely the ECB will back away from its two interest rate increases earlier this year as to do this would be the admission of a failure to correctly implement monetary policy. Note that in 2008 the ECB continued to raise interest rates as the world crept towards the financial crisis, only to backtrack in light of the Lehman Brothers collapse.

Additional pressures are being felt in Greece. The Troika has packed up and left Athens early after failing to complete their review of Greece’s finances. The Greek government has admitted that GDP will likely contract further than expected and therefore the country will likely fail to reach its previously outlined budget deficit reductions. Greek 2-year yields have been trading at their highest levels prior to the July 21st agreement.

As such the EUR/USD has fallen from 1.45 to below 1.42 this morning in Asian trading. The pair has broken its rising trend line from the July low and is moving towards the 1.4100 level where the August 11th low coincides with the 61% Fib retracement from the July to August move. The EUR/USD could remain range bound unless the pair moves below the 1.4050 level. The EUR/CHF also looks vulnerable after closing the August 15th gap. The EUR/CHF dropped a dramatic 1000 pips in only a week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be meeting tomorrow and the forex trading blogs have been widely speculating of an impending RBA rate cut, similar to that of Turkey and Brazil. However, growth in Australia is not slowing as it is in other parts of the global economy. Retail sales continue to post strong returns and commodity prices remain well supported. The speculation of an RBA rate cut may be premature and could leave some upside potential for the Aussie dollar.

This morning the AUD/USD gapped lower and this level of 1.0625 followed by 1.0800 should serve as the first two resistance levels. To the downside, movement may be capped at 1.0310. The AUD/NZD is showing a bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern with the neckline providing resistance at 1.2750 with a measured move of roughly 400 pips.

Spot crude oil prices continue to struggle to maintain their gains. Last Friday’s disappointing NFP report did little to bolster expectations for increased global economic growth or demand for the commodity. Stagnant US unemployment continues to weigh on the US economic recovery but hopes of additional policy easing by the Fed may allow a test of the $90 resistance level. Support may be found at $84.50, $83.00, and $79.40.

Jovi Overo

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Thursday August 18 2011

The US dollar (USD) was seen trading moderately lower at yesterday’s close after a day of mixed news from the global economy. Weak gains seen on the USD this week was offset yesterday after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) failed to halt the rising strength of the franc (CHF). So far, this action has pushed investors back into the value of the Swissie, sapping safe-haven appeal from the greenback.

Economic news over the last few weeks has pushed traders into a position of market pessimism; and trading yesterday behaved more so than many analysts had anticipated. Little news has emerged which put a dent in the amount of pessimism surrounding the forex market, traders are now eyeing the remainder of August news to determine what the third quarter may bring.

With a very heavy news day expected from the US today, traders will want to be on guard against added volatility as today’s news may generate some swings in value. Following yesterday’s better-than-expected PPI growth figures, today’s data should help generate some volatility as investors assess CPI, manufacturing, and home sales. As the trend persists, any additional negativity in today’s news will likely spark heavier aversion from risk. Where the CHF stands in this fight could be the deciding factor in how much the USD gains as a result.

The Swiss franc (CHF) was seen trading with largely bullish results yesterday as traders moved away from riskier assets worldwide. The move came after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivered a dovish statement that failed to peg the currency to any regional neighbours, nor set a price floor on its skyrocketing value. Traders took cue from the SNB announcement and made a heavy push into the Swissie in yesterday’s early trading hours.

The largely bearish reports out of Europe yesterday have appeared to confirm many fears felt by traders who were anticipating a string of pessimism. Debt concerns remain a priority in the euro zone’s periphery, and the holiday season in Europe is generating significant uncertainty as European leaders take leave amid a tremendous crisis. Such moves are acting solely as a fuel to the fire lit beneath the CHF, assisting its meteoric rise.

On tap today, traders will witness the release of a less a string of news out of the United States, with zero data arriving from Switzerland or the euro zone. Many analysts are now looking to Germany to shore up much of the euro zone’s economic strength, with added responsibility falling to one of the few nations which has experienced very little economic distress. Should today’s reports show additional weakness in the US, there is a good chance traders will purchase more francs.

The Japanese yen (JPY) was given a boost yesterday, as market reports showed further flight to safety. Piling atop recent reports on Japan’s shrinking household spending figures, the publication of Japanese trade data has shown a decline in exports consistent with an overly strengthened yen. Despite a meeting between French and German ministers over economic cooperation, the Pacific

Nations appear to be rushing ahead with their bullish endeavours, contrary to market outlook among the European nations.

Japan’s economy has been much worse in its performance than it was expected to be just one month ago. Investors have been piling into the JPY en masse as its strength as a store of value gained appeal. As housing slumps, and as monetary adjustments take place in China and New Zealand, the Japanese and Swiss economies now finds themselves gaining the most from the blows coming down on Europe. Should this bombardment continue the JPY will likely remain in its current bullish channel.

Crude Oil prices fell mildly lower Wednesday as the downgrade of US debt by S&P last week pulled demand for oil significantly lower. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are also driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

The impact has been a decline in oil values from over $100 a barrel a few weeks back to a current price near $85 a barrel. An expected jump in dollar values due to this week’s risk averse environment has helped many investors ram up their short-taking positions on physical assets, but with the USD’s gains not materializing, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady, with gradual losses priced in. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing by week’s end.

Jovi Overo

 

 

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Tuesday August 16 2011

The US dollar (USD) was experiencing short swings yesterday as investors anticipate what impact this week’s housing data will have on the weakened US economic outlook. The greenback had found moderate strength in the morning hours, but soon pared its gains as investment data turned sour. The value of safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) have been buoyed by a shift away from higher yielding assets, though the Swissie’s value was gouged by recent talk of capping its strength.

With the economies of Europe and the US posting little positive news on yesterday’s calendar, the amount of pessimism surrounding the forex market, particularly in the fragile United States and euro zone, appears to have grown, further dampening the strength of the EUR, GBP, and AUD. The dollar has seen mild gains as it tends to do when risk aversion grows, though its value rests on shaky ground considering recent financial manoeuvres currently underway.

With a heavy news day expected today, however, traders are sure to see a return of portfolio adjustment as volatility becomes elevated. The US economy will be publishing several reports on housing and one industrial production figure alongside the capacity utilization rate indicator. Should today’s news disappoint, there is a possibility that more investment will get pushed towards the safety of the Swissie and yen, driving USD values lower in the process.

The Great British pound (GBP) has been seen trading with largely bearish results so far this week as traders assess the risk sentiment across the region. The Cable was seen trading bearish in late trading as shifts into the greenback, due to uncertainty about a recent deal struck over the debt ceiling in the United States and subsequent ratings downgrade, caused a stir in the foreign exchange market.

News of debt contagion spreading across the euro zone also has several economists worried that a toppling of consumer confidence may be up next. Whether Great Britain is affected by this regional tug is a matter for speculation at the moment, however. Should today’s reports on inflation indicate a downturn in growth and thus demand there is a chance that traders will take the news to mean the pound sterling will meet further resistance in the near future.

On tap today, traders will witness the release of moderately significant reports on inflation at the consumer and retail level in the UK at 9:30 GMT. Should the figures reveal stagnation in inflationary growth, we could see heftier flights to safety in the days and weeks ahead. This would likely push the value of the GBP lower over the long-haul as traders continue to flee risk in larger numbers.

The Australian dollar (AUD) was trading mostly weaker versus its currency counterparts yesterday after data releases have begun to shift traders back into safety. The Aussie has been losing momentum these past few weeks as risk aversion becomes predominant in the global market. Fears emanating from the current market environment have led many to seek safety.

This movement has gouged the AUD against all of its currency rivals, especially against safe-havens like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY). With significant reports released this morning, forex traders are highly likely to see heavy movement by the Aussie in today’s trading hours. News out of Japan yesterday is also expected to hike volatility throughout the Pacific countries of China, New Zealand and Australia. Pacific traders should be cautious in today’s trading.

Crude Oil prices held steady Monday as sentiment appeared to favour a mild uptick in global stocks following reports of monetary moves being made by several central banks. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

An expected dip in dollar values due to this week’s risk sensitive environment has helped many investors ram up their long-taking positions on physical assets, but with the USD’s losses not materializing in large enough numbers, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing by mid-week.

Jovi Overo

 

 

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Tuesday August 9 2011

The US dollar (USD) was seen struggling to hold its value yesterday amid severe market pessimism due to a downgrade of US debt by S&P’s ratings agency. The value of safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) have been buoyed by a shift away from higher yielding assets, though the CHF has seen only mild gains and the JPY was brought to bear by an intervention by Japan’s central bank. The greenback appears to be holding strength despite the downgrade as it remains a central store of value for most investors.

China unleashed a lengthy diatribe against the US on Monday during the emergency G20 summit as a reaction to S&P’s historic move. The talk was aimed at the loss of value China foresees as impending due to what it viewed as fiscal irresponsibility on the part of Congressional leadership. Moody’s Investor Services, however, did defend the AAA rating of US debt yesterday, attempting to forestall a sharper decline on Wall Street and justify the USD and US Treasury notes as stable stores of value in this shaky global market.

With a heavy news day expected today, traders are sure to see heightened volatility with potentially wide swings in value from the plummeting stock market. The US economy will be publishing several reports on productivity, labour costs, and the latest decision on short-term interest rates, known as the Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Funds Rate announcement will be of prime importance today considering its timing in relation to these other historic events. How the Fed portrays itself this week may be key to determining the USD’s value in the weeks and months ahead.

The British pound (GBP) has been seen trading with largely bullish results so far this week as traders assess the risk sentiment across the region. The Cable was seen trading bullish in late trading as shifts away from the greenback, due to uncertainty surrounding US markets after an historic downgrade by S&P of US debt led many to favour sterling in early week trades.

News of debt contagion spreading across the euro zone, however, has also led several economists to worry that a toppling of consumer confidence may be up next. Whether Britain is affected by this regional tug is a matter for speculation at the moment, but one trader should bear in mind considering the wide spill-over effect running through global markets this week. Should today’s reports on industrial and manufacturing output indicate a downturn in productivity, and thus growth, there is a chance that traders will take the news to mean the pound sterling could meet resistance in the near future.

On tap today, traders will witness the release of a highly significant monthly report on manufacturing production in Great Britain at 9:30 GMT, concurrent with the nations less important industrial production and trade balance data. Should the figures reveal stagnation in manufacturing and industry growth, we could see heftier flights to safety in the days and weeks ahead. This would likely push the value of the GBP lower over the long-haul as traders continue to flee risk in larger numbers.

The Australian dollar (AUD) was trading mostly weaker versus its currency counterparts yesterday after data releases have begun to shift traders back into safety. The Aussie has been losing momentum these past few weeks as risk aversion becomes predominant in the global market. Fears emanating from the recent downgrade of US debt have made the forex market jittery so far this week, leading many to seek safety.

This movement has gouged the AUD against all of its currency rivals, especially against safe-havens like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY). With further housing reports getting released this morning, forex traders are highly likely to see heavy movement by the Aussie in today’s trading hours. News out of China today is also expected to hike volatility throughout the Pacific countries of Japan, New Zealand and Australia. Pacific traders should be cautious in today’s trading.

Crude Oil prices dropped sharply Monday as sentiment appeared to favour a massive downturn in global stocks following a downgrade of US debt by S&P’s ratings agency this weekend. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets, but dominating sentiment this week has been the debt downgrade in the US, widening bond yields in Spain and Italy, and a sharp decline in stocks and futures as a result of portfolio shifts and pessimistic forecasts.

An expected dip in dollar values due to market outlook has caused oil futures to plummet, driving many investors away from such physical assets. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flop this week, oil prices may fall well into $80 price range. Traders appear weary of the value of oil as its volatility has increased these past several trading weeks. Should the stock market fail to find support in the days ahead, oil futures will likely remain bearish, pulling prices lower over the next few days.

Jovi Overo

 

 

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Thursday August 4 2011

The US dollar (USD) was seen trading sideways at yesterday’s close after a day of mixed news from the global economy. The value of safe-haven assets has been dampened by an interest rate decrease in Switzerland and poor fundamentals in Japan. Even the USD, which was expected to receive a boost no matter how the debt talks ended, appears to have succumbed to mixed sentiment regarding global outlook.

Economic news this week has pushed traders into a position of market pessimism; though trading yesterday was acting as though no safe-haven could be found. Little news has emerged which put a dent in the amount of pessimism surrounding the forex market, traders are now eyeing the finer details of the US debt ceiling plan to determine when, or if, a return to risk appetite is expected.

With a moderate news day expected from Europe and Great Britain, traders will be witnessing the release of this week’s unemployment claims report from the US. Following yesterday’s optimistic data from ADP’s Non-Farm Employment Change report on the private sector, today’s unemployment claims will offer another piece of info regarding the employment sector of the US economy. Should it also support optimism, traders may return mildly to riskier assets and away from the USD.

The euro (EUR) was seen trading with largely mixed results yesterday as traders moved into and away from riskier assets across the region. Against the US dollar (USD) the euro was seen trading sideways in late trading as shifts away from the greenback, due to uncertainty about the US debt ceiling plan, caused several market participants to opt for other stores of value.

The largely bullish reports out of Europe yesterday have appeared to confound traders who were anticipating a string of bearish results. Though debt concerns still loom in the region, optimistic data has had the impact of muting the EUR’s losses against its primary basket of currencies. With an interest rate announcement expected today, traders should see some added volatility in today’s EUR market.

On tap today, traders will witness the release of a highly significant report on the region’s Minimum Bid Rate. Should the rate statement come out with hawkish commentary, we could see heftier shifts to riskier assets in the days and weeks ahead. This would likely push the value of the EUR higher over the long-haul as traders temporarily cease to flee risk.

The Australian dollar (AUD) was weighed down yesterday, as market reports showed contraction across the boards. Piling atop recent reports on Australia’s shrinking housing sector, yesterday’s publication of Australian retail sales and its national trade balance show a broadening contraction striking several sectors of Australia’s economy. The retail sales figure, perhaps most shocking, witnessed contraction in June.

Expectations for the retail sales report was for a modest growth of 0.4% from last month’s contraction of 0.6%. The actual report of 0.1% shrinkage has led many investors to pull away from the Australian dollar (AUD) in recent trading. The nation’s trade balance also revealed sluggish growth of only A$2.05B as opposed to the expected A$2.22B, down from last month’s A$2.70B. This data, combined with dismal HPI and new home sales reports, has so far dragged the Aussie lower and looks to continue doing so this week.

Crude Oil prices fell mildly lower Wednesday as warnings of a downgrade of US debt by Moody’s Investors Service pulled demand for oil significantly lower. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are also driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.

The impact has been a decline in oil values from over $100 a barrel last week to a current price near $93. An expected jump in dollar values due to this week’s risk averse environment has helped many investors ram up their short-taking positions on physical assets, but with the USD’s gains not materializing, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady, with gradual losses priced in. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing by week’s end.

Jovi Overo

 

 

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Friday July 29 2011

The US dollar was seen trading mildly lower yesterday as traders began to revaluate the recent jump in USD values. The EUR/USD was seen meeting resistance near 1.4500 yesterday and plummeted towards 1.4430 in late trading. The greenback saw similar movements against most other currency pairs as well.

A short series of data released yesterday painted a relatively stronger picture for the US economy’s growth. Weekly unemployment claims saw a better than forecast rise, hitting 398,000 for the past week. A home sales report also showed a solid uptick, significantly beating expectations. So far the news has helped drive the USD lower as traders seek out small amounts of risk ahead of the week’s conclusion.

With a heavy news day expected Friday, dollar traders should be anticipating some exciting currency movements brought about by heightened liquidity. The economic calendar, though, will be focused on Japan and the US with several reports on inflation and GDP, respectively. The greenback is in focus as the week concludes considering the intense rollercoaster it experienced these past few trading days, also considering the deadline for lifting the debt limit will be reached next Tuesday.

The euro was seen trading lower yesterday in light of data releases suggesting stagnation in the German employment sector. Moreover, an auction of Italian bonds this week produced fear that debt contagion was coming back into view. The lacklustre performance of the auction drove many regional investors away from the EUR despite the relative potential is has for making gains should the US falter on its debt ceiling talks.

While growth variances between the US and Europe came into view this past week, the higher yielding assets like the GBP and EUR appeared positioned to lose as traders turned away from risk, despite the uptick in risk taking seen by mid-week. The growth in risk aversion may have many investors choosing to store their value in lower yielding currencies, like the USD and JPY as the week comes to a close.

As for Friday, the euro looks to be anticipating an evaluation of its recent downturn against the other major currencies with mild bias further leaning to the downside. The euro zone will be publishing a few economic events on today’s calendar. Traders should try and follow the significant publication emanating from the Japanese, US, and Canadian economies today, however, as a heavy string of reports are expected throughout the day.

The Japanese yen (JPY) was seen trading higher versus most other currencies this week after news began to shift many traders back into safe-haven assets. The yen has been a top performer these past several months considering many traders bank on the Japanese carry trade during times of intense risk appetite and move towards the JPY in times of risk aversion, making it an appealing currency in these recent times of ominous debt talks.

 

The JPY was in a position to make solid gains yesterday after debt auctions in Italy moved many investors away from the euro zone and into safer assets. Moves toward riskier currencies halted as pessimism took hold and drove much of yesterday’s trading liquidity towards traditional stores of value. As such, traders appear to be anticipating an uptick in the JPY prior to this week’s close.

Crude Oil prices sunk yesterday, reaching near $97.50 in late trading. Growth differentials between the Atlantic states have risen into view this week while manufacturing output and service data revealed mild weakness in Europe. This has so far led several large investors and analysts to consider a shift away from the EUR and other risky assets in exchange for the safety of the USD and JPY.

As investors sought safety, the value of crude oil, which has been seen holding steady most of the week, also fell slightly towards $97.50 a barrel. A sudden jump in dollar values due to this week’s risk sensitive environment has helped many investors move hesitantly away from assets like gold and silver, but crude oil appears untouched by this sentiment. Should Crude Oil prices hold steady this week, we could see some gains going into the week’s final hours.

Jovi Overo

Beta 2 Forex News, Jovi Overo, Beta 2 Ltd, Friday July 22 2011

The US dollar was seen trading higher yesterday as traders began to revaluate the recent dip in USD values from notions of growing risk appetite brought about by optimistic housing and earnings data. The EUR/USD was seen meeting resistance near 1.4250 yesterday and plummeted towards 1.4200 in late trading. The greenback saw similar movements against most other currency pairs as well.

The series of data released yesterday painted a relatively weak picture for the US economy’s growth; but growth is shown to be occurring nevertheless. Weekly unemployment claims saw a worse than forecast rise, hitting 418,000 for the past week. A manufacturing index out of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, showed a solid uptick, beating expectations. The frontrunner in yesterday’s data, however, was a long string of reports out of Europe that showed the region experiencing stagnation which has gouged investor appetite for risk.

With a moderately heavy news day expected Friday, dollar traders should be anticipating some exciting currency movements brought about by heightened liquidity. The economic calendar, though, will be focused on Canada with several reports on CPI and retail sales. The greenback is in focus as the week concludes considering the intense rollercoaster it experienced these past few trading days. If news continues bearish, the dollar may see some added gains before the week comes to an end.

The euro was seen trading lower yesterday in light of data releases suggesting stagnation across the euro zone. Following yesterday’s flash manufacturing and service reports in the euro zone, traders appeared more concentrated on news out of the US to determine values, and we’ve seen a retracement of the USD versus its primary currency counterparts as a result of this sentiment.

While growth variances between the US and Europe came into view this past week, the higher yielding assets like the GBP and EUR appeared positioned to lose as traders turned away from risk, despite the uptick in risk taking seen by mid-week. The growth in risk aversion may have many investors choosing to store their value in lower yielding currencies, like the USD and JPY as the week comes to a close.

As for Friday, the euro looks to be anticipating an evaluation of its recent downturn against the other major currencies with mild bias to the downside. The euro zone will be publishing a few economic events on today’s calendar. Traders should try and follow the significant publication emanating from the Canadian and German economies today, however, as a heavy string of reports are expected throughout the day, the German Ifo Business Climate report at 9:00 GMT primarily among them.

The Japanese yen (JPY) was seen trading higher versus most other currencies yesterday after news began to shift many traders back into safe-haven assets. The yen has been a top performer these past several months considering many traders bank on the Japanese carry trade during times of intense risk appetite and move towards the JPY in times of risk aversion, making it an appealing currency in these recent times of ominous reports.

 

The JPY was in a position to make solid gains yesterday after a series of flash manufacturing and service data reports revealed stagnation in Europe. Moves toward riskier currencies halted as pessimism took hold and drove much of yesterday’s trading liquidity towards traditional stores of value. As such, traders appear to be anticipating a mild uptick in the JPY prior to this week’s close.

Crude Oil prices rose yesterday, reaching as high as $99.60 in late trading. Growth differentials between the Atlantic states have risen into view this week while manufacturing output and service data revealed mild weakness in Europe. This has so far led several large investors and analysts to consider a shift away from the EUR and other risky assets in exchange for the safety of the USD and JPY.

As investors sought safety, the value of crude oil, which has been seen holding steady most of the week, rebounded to a weekly high of $99.60 a barrel. A sudden jump in dollar values due to this week’s risk sensitive environment has helped many investors move hesitantly away from assets like gold and silver, but crude oil appears untouched by this sentiment. Should Crude Oil prices hold steady this week, we may continue to see some gains going into the week’s final hours.

Jovi Overo